COT Signal Matrix — week of May 20, 2025

Commitments of Traders positioning for 42 futures markets as reported by the CFTC for Tuesday May 20, 2025: Commercial, Non-Commercial and Non-Reportable positioning indexes on raw and OI-normalized bases, index momentum, WILLCO, sentiment and open-interest readings, with each model's setup verdict.

Raw 3-leg 95/5 full setups: Nasdaq (bullish), S&P 500 (bullish), Orange Juice (bullish). NPF 2-leg 80/20 full setups: Swiss Franc (bearish), Nasdaq (bullish), S&P 500 (bullish), Orange Juice (bullish), Sugar (bullish).

Positioning · Raw 3-leg 95/5Positioning · NPF 2-leg 80/20Index MomentumFriction & FlowOpen Interest
Asset ClassAssetTape BiasSignalsComm IndexNonComm IndexNonRept IndexComm IndexNonRept IndexComm MoveNonComm MoveNonRept MoveWILLCONonComm SentimentOI ZMax Pain Pull
CryptoBitcoinBullish4-YR BUY EXTREME10010519642+59-70+51960+0.57–
CryptoEthereumNeutral4755456520+34-35+416515+1.84–
CurrenciesAustralian DollarNeutral6534487443-7+3+177458-0.81–
CurrenciesBritish PoundNeutral3947983399-24+13+483364-0.40–
CurrenciesCanadian DollarNeutral3268584940-19+13+384961-1.08–
CurrenciesEuroBearishMACRO BEAR SETUP2566922587-25+13+512593+1.78–
CurrenciesJapanese YenBearish89568970+8-5-23993+1.26–
CurrenciesMexican PesoBearish5545531470-19+16+411489-1.01–
CurrenciesNew ZealandNeutral6137438036-20+18+218094-0.14–
CurrenciesSwiss FrancBearish791911090-43+42+351096-1.26–
CurrenciesUS DollarBullish9511209124+19-15-22913-0.84–
EnergiesCrude OilNeutral77283742-23+28-147452+0.83–
EnergiesGasolineNeutralMACD SELL4055584561-20+7+514566+0.41–
EnergiesHeating OilNeutral3252873486-27+11+373454-0.73–
EnergiesNatural GasNeutral5248305932+14-4-295930-0.89–
EquitiesDOWBearish65690610-21+43+061100-0.44–
EquitiesNasdaqBullish1002001000+48-46+010020+0.46–
EquitiesRussellBearish65651641-8+31-186481-0.61–
EquitiesS&P 500Bullish9611139615-4-25+139713-0.49–
Fixed Income10-Year NoteNeutral6835586156-22+27-426160+2.21–
Fixed Income2-Year NoteNeutralMACD BUY6437345827+12-12-25821+0.62–
Fixed Income30-Year NoteNeutral3358712463+17-19-72423+0.93–
Fixed Income5-Year NoteBullish4-YR BUY EXTREME1002659156+6+2-21913+2.59–
GrainsCornNeutral6335755868+25-25+23580+0.33–
GrainsSoybeanBearish3563783583-19+17+223583+0.92–
GrainsSoybean MealBullish970619558+7-6+0950+0.44–
GrainsSoybean OilBearish2775582857-8+8+52893+1.55–
GrainsWheatNeutralBEAR TREND64440510-23+28-635123+0.85–
Live StockFeeder CattleBearish4-YR SELL EXTREME09942033-38+66-40099+0.27–
Live StockLean HogsNeutral4158343737-59+58-663758+2.16–
Live StockLive CattleNeutral6140307637+24-13-677640+0.97–
MetalsCopperNeutral5251324039-2-4+324038-0.80–
MetalsGoldBullish95210090100-5+2+0902-1.08–
MetalsPalladiumNeutral6633647456-13+14-77449+0.82–
MetalsPlatinumNeutralSTRUCTURAL BULL54690530-46+69-1005369+0.62–
MetalsSilverNeutral5150511756-14+20+31733-1.27–
SoftsCocoaBearishSTRUCTURAL BULL010060351-91+94+33345+0.92–
SoftsCoffeeNeutral8518565061-15+18+565011-0.66–
SoftsCottonNeutral4560115515-10+11+25563-0.58–
SoftsLumberBullish7134278031+22-21+4809-0.08–
SoftsOrange JuiceBullish100011001+0+0+11000-0.43–
SoftsSugarBullish8520118412+9-5-238471-1.15–

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