COT Signal Matrix — week of May 13, 2025

Commitments of Traders positioning for 42 futures markets as reported by the CFTC for Tuesday May 13, 2025: Commercial, Non-Commercial and Non-Reportable positioning indexes on raw and OI-normalized bases, index momentum, WILLCO, sentiment and open-interest readings, with each model's setup verdict.

Raw 3-leg 95/5 full setups: Nasdaq (bullish), Russell (bullish), S&P 500 (bullish), Cocoa (bearish), Orange Juice (bullish). NPF 2-leg 80/20 full setups: Bitcoin (bullish), Mexican Peso (bearish), Swiss Franc (bearish), Nasdaq (bullish), Russell (bullish), S&P 500 (bullish), Soybean Meal (bullish), Silver (bearish), Cocoa (bearish), Orange Juice (bullish).

Positioning · Raw 3-leg 95/5Positioning · NPF 2-leg 80/20Index MomentumFriction & FlowOpen Interest
Asset ClassAssetTape BiasSignalsComm IndexNonComm IndexNonRept IndexComm IndexNonRept IndexComm MoveNonComm MoveNonRept MoveWILLCONonComm SentimentOI ZMax Pain Pull
CryptoBitcoinNeutral4-YR BUY EXTREME100360960+44-26-39626+0.04–
CryptoEthereumNeutral3370356117-28+21+166150+1.84–
CurrenciesAustralian DollarBearish6041456740-17+19+56788-0.70–
CurrenciesBritish PoundNeutral4945744080-2+2+94074-0.45–
CurrenciesCanadian DollarBearish1587412125-46+42+332184-1.21–
CurrenciesEuroBearish2668862582-26+18+4425100+1.60–
CurrenciesJapanese YenBearish69764768+1+3-36796+1.24–
CurrenciesMexican PesoBearish5148755100-13+11+45596-1.06–
CurrenciesNew ZealandBearish5938587750-28+26+327797-0.16–
CurrenciesSwiss FrancBearish0941000100-80+93+410100-1.26–
CurrenciesUS DollarBullish9211398745+32-32+4873-1.15–
EnergiesCrude OilNeutral78270790-14+10-177937+1.84–
EnergiesGasolineNeutral4151664569+13-20+194560+0.32–
EnergiesHeating OilNeutral62710066100+16-36+12665-0.93–
EnergiesNatural GasNeutral5249245725+8+9-505730-0.37–
EquitiesDOWBearish63636588-37+55+658100-0.68–
EquitiesNasdaqNeutral1004421005+43+4-3610037+0.68–
EquitiesRussellBullish100951005+19-17-1210012-0.42–
EquitiesS&P 500Bullish10002410028+35-44+241000-0.41–
Fixed Income10-Year NoteNeutral7430596857+9-4-196850+1.97–
Fixed Income2-Year NoteNeutralBEAR TREND6045185711+0+1-55751+0.28–
Fixed Income30-Year NoteNeutral3356782471+15-16-52419+0.85–
Fixed Income5-Year NoteBullish979558750+1+9-238717+2.49–
GrainsCornNeutral5939705461+19-20+28540+0.08–
GrainsSoybeanBearish3067783182-21+17+2331100+0.68–
GrainsSoybean MealBullish954239419-2+3-11949-0.09–
GrainsSoybean OilBearishSTRUCTURAL BULL2081732073-40+39+3520100+1.20–
GrainsWheatBullish4-YR BUY EXTREME1000748567+0+0-26850+1.22–
Live StockFeeder CattleNeutral4-YR SELL EXTREME079441436+0-21+421479+0.26–
Live StockLean HogsNeutral5246594458-47+44-334446+0.58–
Live StockLive CattleNeutral3561322548+35-39+22561+0.61–
MetalsCopperNeutral5152343743+6-8+143740-1.06–
MetalsGoldBullish1000869491+4-6+18940-1.35–
MetalsPalladiumBullish7820688257+15-16-1829+0.98–
MetalsPlatinumNeutral7338226827+11-8-76838-0.92–
MetalsSilverNeutral5340781387+26-28+101321-1.47–
SoftsCocoaBearishSTRUCTURAL BULLMACD SELL01001000100-91+90+96028-0.05–
SoftsCoffeeNeutral7033514153-30+33+514117-0.50–
SoftsCottonBearish2481113214-35+44-633286-1.07–
SoftsLumberBullish7430328336+47-42-88314-0.05–
SoftsOrange JuiceBullish100101000+0-15+01000-0.51–
SoftsSugarBullish8220248127+11-8-228172-1.42–

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