COT Signal Matrix — week of May 06, 2025

Commitments of Traders positioning for 42 futures markets as reported by the CFTC for Tuesday May 06, 2025: Commercial, Non-Commercial and Non-Reportable positioning indexes on raw and OI-normalized bases, index momentum, WILLCO, sentiment and open-interest readings, with each model's setup verdict.

Raw 3-leg 95/5 full setups: Japanese Yen (bearish), Russell (bullish), S&P 500 (bullish). NPF 2-leg 80/20 full setups: Japanese Yen (bearish), Swiss Franc (bearish), Crude Oil (bullish), Russell (bullish), S&P 500 (bullish), Silver (bearish), Cocoa (bearish), Orange Juice (bullish), Sugar (bullish).

Positioning · Raw 3-leg 95/5Positioning · NPF 2-leg 80/20Index MomentumFriction & FlowOpen Interest
Asset ClassAssetTape BiasSignalsComm IndexNonComm IndexNonRept IndexComm IndexNonRept IndexComm MoveNonComm MoveNonRept MoveWILLCONonComm SentimentOI ZMax Pain Pull
CryptoBitcoinBullish4-YR BUY EXTREME10014419735+65-63+27970-0.13–
CryptoEthereumNeutral2875305515+15-12+185564+0.79–
CurrenciesAustralian DollarBearish6042466641-19+21+106691-0.59–
CurrenciesBritish PoundNeutral5044734180+6-7+34177-0.31–
CurrenciesCanadian DollarBearish39752341-56+51+33396-1.42–
CurrenciesEuroBearishMACRO BEAR SETUP28641002599-18+9+4925100+1.27–
CurrenciesJapanese YenBearishMACRO BEAR SETUP099100497-6+3+22499+1.58–
CurrenciesMexican PesoBearishEXHAUSTION515049071-7+7+140100-1.20–
CurrenciesNew ZealandBearishEXHAUSTION6038557848-22+22+217895-0.17–
CurrenciesSwiss FrancBearish0921000100-71+71+490100-1.43–
CurrenciesUS DollarBullish989199228+44-36-40920-0.17–
EnergiesCrude OilNeutral82218847-2-3-108423+2.44–
EnergiesGasolineNeutral5742386141+6-10+136146+0.36–
EnergiesHeating OilBullish863549052+29-42+6900-0.68–
EnergiesNatural GasNeutral5945156715+5+14-526722-0.61–
EquitiesDOWBearishMACD SELL6656116212-34+56+062100-0.93–
EquitiesNasdaqBearish74860710+5+65-487183-0.35–
EquitiesRussellNeutralMACD BUY97340940+15+5-69453-0.24–
EquitiesS&P 500Bullish1001551007+26-14-101001-0.37–
Fixed Income10-Year NoteNeutral7523897387+15-17+207325+1.32–
Fixed Income2-Year NoteNeutral5245525255+1-3+195252+0.15–
Fixed Income30-Year NoteNeutral3850782873+17-20-1288+0.76–
Fixed Income5-Year NoteBullish990929185+14-8+19910+2.42–
GrainsCornNeutral4652593845+10-11+22380-0.13–
GrainsSoybeanBearish3663643568-19+16+243589+0.19–
GrainsSoybean MealBullish971369635+2-3+18964-0.62–
GrainsSoybean OilBearish2675682568-60+57+682597+0.87–
GrainsWheatNeutral8217867485-4+1+127412-0.01–
Live StockFeeder CattleNeutralMACRO BEAR SETUP4139704543+41-61+704539-0.67–
Live StockLean HogsNeutral6831615857-32+31-395831-0.48–
Live StockLive CattleNeutral4555224438+38-29-374455+0.79–
MetalsCopperNeutral5352213926+11-12+53941-1.15–
MetalsGoldBullish990829982+20-19-14990-1.16–
MetalsPalladiumBullish7723538050+12-10-198018+1.07–
MetalsPlatinumNeutral7139286732+13+0-376739-0.37–
MetalsSilverNeutral4747801085+33-34+71029-1.25–
SoftsCocoaNeutral4948711691-43+39+641610-0.86–
SoftsCoffeeNeutral5251542460-38+40+462426-0.65–
SoftsCottonBearish12950180-74+80-4018100-1.30–
SoftsLumberNeutralSTRUCTURAL BEAR6737307635+40-35-97627-0.30–
SoftsOrange JuiceBullish100130800+0+13-37805-1.27–
SoftsSugarBullish8618158516+15-9-348564-1.31–

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