COT Signal Matrix — week of March 18, 2025

Commitments of Traders positioning for 42 futures markets as reported by the CFTC for Tuesday March 18, 2025: Commercial, Non-Commercial and Non-Reportable positioning indexes on raw and OI-normalized bases, index momentum, WILLCO, sentiment and open-interest readings, with each model's setup verdict.

Raw 3-leg 95/5 full setups: Cocoa (bullish). NPF 2-leg 80/20 full setups: DOW (bullish), Cocoa (bullish), Coffee (bullish).

Positioning · Raw 3-leg 95/5Positioning · NPF 2-leg 80/20Index MomentumFriction & FlowOpen Interest
Asset ClassAssetTape BiasSignalsComm IndexNonComm IndexNonRept IndexComm IndexNonRept IndexComm MoveNonComm MoveNonRept MoveWILLCONonComm SentimentOI ZMax Pain Pull
CryptoBitcoinBearish20919498-21+23+949100+0.37–
CryptoEthereumBearish2379155115-10+13-165185+1.95–
CurrenciesAustralian DollarBullish7226488245-8+3+20827-0.78–
CurrenciesBritish PoundBearish5139783584-42+33+6035100-1.37–
CurrenciesCanadian DollarBearish6440195717-13+13-157100+0.49–
CurrenciesEuroBearish4953464157-45+47+2441100-0.75–
CurrenciesJapanese YenBearish69493073-12+13+6093+0.66–
CurrenciesMexican PesoBearish6041422159-32+31+2921100-1.12–
CurrenciesNew ZealandBullishMACD SELL8118328933-13+12+168947+1.32–
CurrenciesSwiss FrancNeutral6333507446-23+10+227441-0.25–
CurrenciesUS DollarNeutral5944395338+39-30-245352-0.97–
EnergiesCrude OilBullish8916328733+47-38-27878-0.20–
EnergiesGasolineNeutral5944266829+22-24-236836+1.88–
EnergiesHeating OilNeutral6631497051+45-42-177036-2.08–
EnergiesNatural GasNeutral4639724773+32-42+174733+0.49–
EquitiesDOWBullish941310959+9+10-479519+0.89–
EquitiesNasdaqNeutral2262682968-29+9+582950+1.47–
EquitiesRussellNeutral75380720+14+3-377269+1.06–
EquitiesS&P 500Bearish1581582844-26+31-82893+2.30–
Fixed Income10-Year NoteNeutralMACD BUY7331607361+21-21+16733+0.83–
Fixed Income2-Year NoteNeutral6236517058-9+9-147052-0.66–
Fixed Income30-Year NoteNeutral137983675+5-4+29642+1.08–
Fixed Income5-Year NoteBullish857758778-11+3+30877+0.68–
GrainsCornNeutral3069392439+30-31+392431+1.48–
GrainsSoybeanNeutralMACD BUY5548315343+12-12+35369+0.87–
GrainsSoybean MealBullish8515258526+11-16+178543-0.33–
GrainsSoybean OilBullish7627117511+49-48-42750+1.67–
GrainsWheatNeutral7827438048+59-34-478027-0.17–
Live StockFeeder CattleBearish361000465+15+15-1546100+1.39–
Live StockLean HogsBullish10009410092+13-12+21000-1.71–
Live StockLive CattleNeutral5740706574+46-45+176640+0.40–
MetalsCopperBearish4855283934-6+7-639100+0.16–
MetalsGoldNeutral7029767058+55-55+276933+0.37–
MetalsPalladiumNeutral6532837265+10-12+207218+0.89–
MetalsPlatinumNeutral337482711-31+29-42774-0.47–
MetalsSilverBearishBEAR TOP1186663436-39+42+834100+1.65–
SoftsCocoaBullish100001000+0-3-31000-1.09–
SoftsCoffeeBullish100010998+74-68-90990-0.43–
SoftsCottonNeutral7523537858-25+23-287826+1.28–
SoftsLumberBearish2971382544-42+39-22591-0.47–
SoftsOrange JuiceBullish10003710044+71-97+371000-1.79–
SoftsSugarNeutralMACD SELL7621527555-23+21+277550+0.26–

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