COT Signal Matrix — week of March 25, 2025

Commitments of Traders positioning for 42 futures markets as reported by the CFTC for Tuesday March 25, 2025: Commercial, Non-Commercial and Non-Reportable positioning indexes on raw and OI-normalized bases, index momentum, WILLCO, sentiment and open-interest readings, with each model's setup verdict.

Raw 3-leg 95/5 full setups: DOW (bullish). NPF 2-leg 80/20 full setups: Canadian Dollar (bullish), Crude Oil (bullish), DOW (bullish), Russell (bullish), Soybean Meal (bullish), Soybean Oil (bullish), Cocoa (bullish), Coffee (bullish).

Positioning · Raw 3-leg 95/5Positioning · NPF 2-leg 80/20Index MomentumFriction & FlowOpen Interest
Asset ClassAssetTape BiasSignalsComm IndexNonComm IndexNonRept IndexComm IndexNonRept IndexComm MoveNonComm MoveNonRept MoveWILLCONonComm SentimentOI ZMax Pain Pull
CryptoBitcoinNeutral3577145711-36+34+145774+0.18–
CryptoEthereumBearish1387124814-22+17-54899+1.89–
CurrenciesAustralian DollarBullish7921369031+7-9+0900-0.79–
CurrenciesBritish PoundBearish4451702774-44+40+5127100-0.99–
CurrenciesCanadian DollarNeutralLW MACO BULL594619819-12+11+581100-0.71–
CurrenciesEuroBearish4655513959-49+51+2339100-0.30–
CurrenciesJapanese YenBearish69678261+2+1-16295+0.79–
CurrenciesMexican PesoBearishEXHAUSTION5843351549-31+31+2115100-1.19–
CurrenciesNew ZealandBullish8216349134-11+10+119152+1.16–
CurrenciesSwiss FrancNeutral7121517450-11-13+337426+0.12–
CurrenciesUS DollarNeutralMACD BUY5445594757+36-32+04753-1.03–
EnergiesCrude OilBullish8424188318+34-24-318317+0.08–
EnergiesGasolineNeutral5152256228+28-22-696246+1.81–
EnergiesHeating OilNeutralMACD BUY5745486049+44-33-476049-1.93–
EnergiesNatural GasNeutralMACD BUY5431675567+32-43+185511+0.77–
EquitiesDOWBullish10001110015+23-10-461000-1.68–
EquitiesNasdaqNeutralMACD BUY6921485579-3-14+48550-1.69–
EquitiesRussellNeutral822968113-18+26-148153-1.59–
EquitiesS&P 500Neutral7429157526+30-16-537518-0.72–
Fixed Income10-Year NoteNeutral6040695970+1-7+285923+1.06–
Fixed Income2-Year NoteNeutral5148336134-33+29-156178-0.46–
Fixed Income30-Year NoteNeutralMACD BUY2170791372+21-30+26139+0.96–
Fixed Income5-Year NoteBullish858738676-6-2+34869+0.69–
GrainsCornNeutral3663373033+31-32+35300+1.56–
GrainsSoybeanNeutral5547405352+5-5+65365+1.10–
GrainsSoybean MealBullish954189516+14-18-79512+0.15–
GrainsSoybean OilBullish86180840+61-58-74840+2.10–
GrainsWheatBullishMACD BUY8616748278+86-84+68216+0.53–
Live StockFeeder CattleBearishMACRO BEAR SETUP4-YR SELL EXTREME0100070-25+18-177100+0.99–
Live StockLean HogsBullish1000100100100+27-26+161000-1.38–
Live StockLive CattleBearishMACRO BEAR SETUP784593786-16+10+163784+2.01–
MetalsCopperBearish4264163420-9+13-2234100+0.57–
MetalsGoldNeutral7919966093+40-43+446021-0.15–
MetalsPalladiumNeutral6533727259+9-9-67223+0.97–
MetalsPlatinumNeutral5839655179+11-28+655139-0.37–
MetalsSilverBearishMACRO BEAR SETUP1481733441-38+39+163494+1.42–
SoftsCocoaBullish92978712-8+9-32879-1.00–
SoftsCoffeeBullish901181000+2+0-3210011+0.22–
SoftsCottonBullish8615408546+3+1-608519+1.64–
SoftsLumberBearish2772392444-39+35+224100-0.26–
SoftsOrange JuiceBullish10003710046+22-100+371000-1.45–
SoftsSugarNeutral7127497053-25+25+187065+0.24–

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