COT Signal Matrix — week of May 12, 2026

Commitments of Traders positioning for 42 futures markets as reported by the CFTC for Tuesday May 12, 2026: Commercial, Non-Commercial and Non-Reportable positioning indexes on raw and OI-normalized bases, index momentum, WILLCO, sentiment and open-interest readings, with each model's setup verdict.

Raw 3-leg 95/5 full setups: Australian Dollar (bearish), Nasdaq (bullish), Cotton (bearish). NPF 2-leg 80/20 full setups: Bitcoin (bearish), Ethereum (bearish), Australian Dollar (bearish), Nasdaq (bullish), S&P 500 (bullish), Soybean Oil (bearish), Silver (bearish), Cotton (bearish).

Positioning · Raw 3-leg 95/5Positioning · NPF 2-leg 80/20Index MomentumFriction & FlowOpen Interest
Asset ClassAssetTape BiasSignalsComm IndexNonComm IndexNonRept IndexComm IndexNonRept IndexComm MoveNonComm MoveNonRept MoveWILLCONonComm SentimentOI ZMax Pain Pull
CryptoBitcoinNeutral4751009100+0-25+82931-1.03–
CryptoEthereumNeutral15361000100-11-44+6600+0.45–
CurrenciesAustralian DollarBearishMACRO BEAR SETUP4-YR SELL EXTREME010096389+0+0-33100+2.02–
CurrenciesBritish PoundNeutral4161504245-21+17+304259+0.65–
CurrenciesCanadian DollarNeutral2773772875-9+8+162854+0.28–
CurrenciesEuroNeutral5445574646-14+15+54625+0.61–
CurrenciesJapanese YenBullish8516458639-15+16-58623+0.45–
CurrenciesMexican PesoNeutral3959863282-7+6+173215+0.24–
CurrenciesNew ZealandNeutral7429258221+18-17-158237+0.61–
CurrenciesSwiss FrancNeutral80427599+37-26-65938+0.54–
CurrenciesUS DollarBearish3953923393-2-2+63380-0.40–
EnergiesCrude OilNeutralMACD BUY3667493848+22-22-113853+1.24–
EnergiesGasolineNeutral55358441100+15-19+18412-1.01–
EnergiesHeating OilNeutral900925797+11-18+41570-1.44–
EnergiesNatural GasNeutral8221588058+8-7-118070+0.97–
EquitiesDOWNeutral3372473841-7+8-303856+0.92–
EquitiesNasdaqBullish10003110031+31-33+221000+0.28–
EquitiesRussellNeutral4961114711+5-3+44744+0.79–
EquitiesS&P 500Neutral8034448035+70-66+448033+0.39–
Fixed Income10-Year NoteNeutral6245234221-4+2+64228+1.95–
Fixed Income2-Year NoteBullish841810778-16+18+107727+1.66–
Fixed Income30-Year NoteBullish980279831+51-60-22980-0.04–
Fixed Income5-Year NoteBearish010012011-20+16+20100+0.27–
GrainsCornBearishMACRO BEAR SETUP21860180+3+7-391889+1.52–
GrainsSoybeanBearishMACD BUY10930918+2-1-7995+1.76–
GrainsSoybean MealBearish59817313+0+1-62398+0.58–
GrainsSoybean OilBearish59478580+5-6-18590+0.46–
GrainsWheatBearish4849355034+48-51-515081-0.69–
Live StockFeeder CattleBullishEXHAUSTION9401009286+72-100+100920-1.58–
Live StockLean HogsBullish1000100100100+8-6+101000-0.83–
Live StockLive CattleNeutral526006711+37-40+06760+1.52–
MetalsCopperBearishSTRUCTURAL BULLMACD SELL4-YR SELL EXTREME010070074-41+41+60100+1.18–
MetalsGoldNeutralMACD SELL8416323988-11+12-153931-0.94–
MetalsPalladiumNeutral2279642470+4-6+6240+0.09–
MetalsPlatinumBearishSTRUCTURAL BULL0100455-69+62+45100-0.51–
MetalsSilverNeutral761931096-22+10+310100-1.31–
SoftsCocoaBearishSTRUCTURAL BULL010051053-94+100-490100-0.48–
SoftsCoffeeNeutralSTRUCTURAL BEAR7827279329+76-70-729347+1.51–
SoftsCottonBearish4-YR SELL EXTREME01001000100+0+0+00100+0.82–
SoftsLumberBullishMACD SELL947419840+10-9-29824+0.67–
SoftsOrange JuiceNeutral4842765375+10-43+755361+0.80–
SoftsSugarBearish6534537048+4-5+07083+1.00–

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