COT Signal Matrix — week of July 22, 2025

Commitments of Traders positioning for 42 futures markets as reported by the CFTC for Tuesday July 22, 2025: Commercial, Non-Commercial and Non-Reportable positioning indexes on raw and OI-normalized bases, index momentum, WILLCO, sentiment and open-interest readings, with each model's setup verdict.

Raw 3-leg 95/5 full setups: Russell (bullish), S&P 500 (bullish), Soybean Oil (bearish), Cocoa (bullish), Sugar (bullish). NPF 2-leg 80/20 full setups: Heating Oil (bearish), Nasdaq (bearish), Russell (bullish), S&P 500 (bullish), Soybean Oil (bearish), Cocoa (bullish), Coffee (bullish), Orange Juice (bearish), Sugar (bullish).

Positioning · Raw 3-leg 95/5Positioning · NPF 2-leg 80/20Index MomentumFriction & FlowOpen Interest
Asset ClassAssetTape BiasSignalsComm IndexNonComm IndexNonRept IndexComm IndexNonRept IndexComm MoveNonComm MoveNonRept MoveWILLCONonComm SentimentOI ZMax Pain Pull
CryptoBitcoinBullish8115698057-13+7+188017+0.16–
CryptoEthereumNeutral6235596819-38+35-106837+3.57–
CurrenciesAustralian DollarBullishMACD BUY7619599358+8-8-6930-1.42–
CurrenciesBritish PoundNeutralMACD BUY5530755575+55-64-11550-0.09–
CurrenciesCanadian DollarBearish1586724467+0+8-284474-1.61–
CurrenciesEuroBearish588851171-10+14-151196+2.83–
CurrenciesJapanese YenNeutral3665552861+24-21-45284+-0.00–
CurrenciesMexican PesoNeutral5741793582+4-5+103565-0.29–
CurrenciesNew ZealandBearish3861495138-19+21-85182-1.16–
CurrenciesSwiss FrancNeutralMACD BUY1974883386+19-26-123341-0.68–
CurrenciesUS DollarBullish9010378646+3-9+188629+0.00–
EnergiesCrude OilBullish808768374+11-23+478314+1.51–
EnergiesGasolineNeutral5931535556-4+0+135557-0.65–
EnergiesHeating OilBearish310093588-7+19+65100-0.03–
EnergiesNatural GasBearish1088611263-31+31+231294-0.44–
EquitiesDOWNeutral5831505652+21-58+25563+0.55–
EquitiesNasdaqNeutral2276491553-60+45+341570+0.13–
EquitiesRussellBullish10013410037+1-4+191001-1.18–
EquitiesS&P 500Bullish9523710044-4+2+61004-1.31–
Fixed Income10-Year NoteBearish5447565460+2-3+65483+0.44–
Fixed Income2-Year NoteNeutral6041404733+12-11+174728+1.09–
Fixed Income30-Year NoteNeutral3755682763+1-1+02742+0.53–
Fixed Income5-Year NoteBullish963639455-4+3+3949+1.65–
GrainsCornBullishLW MACO BULL8218708257+7-5-14826-0.62–
GrainsSoybeanNeutral3960663975+11-9-143952+1.40–
GrainsSoybean MealBullish8815508525+4+1-58521+2.25–
GrainsSoybean OilBearishBEAR TOP01001003100-47+46+523100+2.65–
GrainsWheatBearish01008015-29+19+80100+0.19–
Live StockFeeder CattleBearish4-YR SELL EXTREME010001436+0+0-3814100+1.42–
Live StockLean HogsNeutral3268362128+32-32+362173+0.00–
Live StockLive CattleNeutral5061196141+35-13-376173+1.15–
MetalsCopperBearish3769222426-9+12-192496-0.12–
MetalsGoldBearishSTRUCTURAL BULL3365381642-44+46-6216100+0.33–
MetalsPalladiumBearish2571903868-24+23+338100+0.88–
MetalsPlatinumNeutral3377372533+33-23-182577+0.28–
MetalsSilverNeutral2972425417+29-28-465472+1.04–
SoftsCocoaBullish100001000+68-50-1001000-0.37–
SoftsCoffeeBullishBEAR TREND85190880+3+3-558811+0.30–
SoftsCottonNeutral3764445050-18+18+85035-1.02–
SoftsLumberBearish2476192225-40+35-722100+0.00–
SoftsOrange JuiceNeutral20601000100-28-28+82057-1.64–
SoftsSugarBullish9924984+1-2-7986-0.18–

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