COT Signal Matrix — week of July 15, 2025

Commitments of Traders positioning for 42 futures markets as reported by the CFTC for Tuesday July 15, 2025: Commercial, Non-Commercial and Non-Reportable positioning indexes on raw and OI-normalized bases, index momentum, WILLCO, sentiment and open-interest readings, with each model's setup verdict.

Raw 3-leg 95/5 full setups: Heating Oil (bearish), Russell (bullish), Orange Juice (bullish), Sugar (bullish). NPF 2-leg 80/20 full setups: British Pound (bearish), Euro (bearish), Heating Oil (bearish), Nasdaq (bearish), Russell (bullish), S&P 500 (bullish), Soybean Oil (bearish), Cocoa (bullish), Coffee (bullish), Orange Juice (bullish), Sugar (bullish).

Positioning · Raw 3-leg 95/5Positioning · NPF 2-leg 80/20Index MomentumFriction & FlowOpen Interest
Asset ClassAssetTape BiasSignalsComm IndexNonComm IndexNonRept IndexComm IndexNonRept IndexComm MoveNonComm MoveNonRept MoveWILLCONonComm SentimentOI ZMax Pain Pull
CryptoBitcoinBullish990669754-1-1+10970+0.29–
CryptoEthereumNeutral7721627121-6-1+07122+2.77–
CurrenciesAustralian DollarBullish7323559354+7-8+1933-1.88–
CurrenciesBritish PoundNeutral2369841986+13-4-161950-0.59–
CurrenciesCanadian DollarBearish1584844586-16+19-84573-1.72–
CurrenciesEuroBearish28993782-19+20-77100+2.55–
CurrenciesJapanese YenNeutral3964443250+29-25-56320+0.19–
CurrenciesMexican PesoNeutralMACD BUY60379637100+7-10+343748-0.41–
CurrenciesNew ZealandBearishEXHAUSTION3069563547-31+32+43597-1.27–
CurrenciesSwiss FrancBearish1089882286+2+9-122289-0.84–
CurrenciesUS DollarBullish929328841+1-7+188818-0.08–
EnergiesCrude OilBullish7614698366-9-3+478324+2.14–
EnergiesGasolineNeutral3749753083-16+1+563070-1.03–
EnergiesHeating OilBearish010099097-35+46+230100-0.42–
EnergiesNatural GasBearish1091491250-29+30+1411100-0.06–
EquitiesDOWNeutral4250494151+8-43+244045+0.39–
EquitiesNasdaqBearish1390491353-75+69+331388+0.21–
EquitiesRussellBullish10004410050+25-57+441000-1.51–
EquitiesS&P 500Bullish9423810043+13-24+141004-1.26–
Fixed Income10-Year NoteNeutral5744545658+7-8+75677+0.74–
Fixed Income2-Year NoteBullish7132355829+28-27+17580+1.02–
Fixed Income30-Year NoteNeutral5538534348+12-10-13430+0.60–
Fixed Income5-Year NoteBullish4-YR BUY EXTREME1001539744+0+1-9972+1.78–
GrainsCornBullishLW MACO BULL8119748163+8-6-5817-0.73–
GrainsSoybeanNeutral4454734379+12-12+14331+1.23–
GrainsSoybean MealBullish928799060+3+3-59011+2.43–
GrainsSoybean OilBearish790961291-39+36+471284+2.14–
GrainsWheatBearish49314017-46+34+3093-0.46–
Live StockFeeder CattleBearishMACRO BEAR SETUP210002554+2+0-5725100+1.54–
Live StockLean HogsBearish1783231117+17-17+201183+0.53–
Live StockLive CattleNeutral6455167337+13+16-477340+0.63–
MetalsCopperBearish3570252229-14+16-1022100-0.22–
MetalsGoldNeutral56371002598-22+18+62567-0.63–
MetalsPalladiumBearish3463824666-26+24+1546100+0.74–
MetalsPlatinumNeutral3872393235+12-7+43272+0.45–
MetalsSilverNeutral2567823457+16-27+43467+0.88–
SoftsCocoaBullish1000111004+70-52-881000+0.04–
SoftsCoffeeBullish87150880-13+15-33879-0.13–
SoftsCottonNeutral3368434749-16+13+194753-1.33–
SoftsLumberBearish2971222628-40+35-42697-0.22–
SoftsOrange JuiceBullish100001000+18+0-291000-1.81–
SoftsSugarBullish9742973+4-5-99712-0.19–

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