COT Signal Matrix — week of April 15, 2025

Commitments of Traders positioning for 42 futures markets as reported by the CFTC for Tuesday April 15, 2025: Commercial, Non-Commercial and Non-Reportable positioning indexes on raw and OI-normalized bases, index momentum, WILLCO, sentiment and open-interest readings, with each model's setup verdict.

Raw 3-leg 95/5 full setups: Japanese Yen (bearish), DOW (bullish), S&P 500 (bullish). NPF 2-leg 80/20 full setups: Japanese Yen (bearish), Crude Oil (bullish), DOW (bullish), S&P 500 (bullish), Soybean Meal (bullish), Orange Juice (bullish).

Positioning · Raw 3-leg 95/5Positioning · NPF 2-leg 80/20Index MomentumFriction & FlowOpen Interest
Asset ClassAssetTape BiasSignalsComm IndexNonComm IndexNonRept IndexComm IndexNonRept IndexComm MoveNonComm MoveNonRept MoveWILLCONonComm SentimentOI ZMax Pain Pull
CryptoBitcoinNeutralMACD BUY57647696+6-1+76943-0.19–
CryptoEthereumBearish218455311-11+13-135387+0.99–
CurrenciesAustralian DollarNeutralMACD SELL6835367731+4-7+107759-0.81–
CurrenciesBritish PoundNeutral6824626165+1-7+216143-1.25–
CurrenciesCanadian DollarBearishSTRUCTURAL BULL2285363324-48+51+1933100-1.31–
CurrenciesEuroBearish4057813590-34+31+4335100+0.54–
CurrenciesJapanese YenBearish4-YR SELL EXTREME0100100080+0+0+120100+1.36–
CurrenciesMexican PesoNeutral7625315444-11+10+135457-0.96–
CurrenciesNew ZealandNeutral7326329130-27+26+1991100+0.21–
CurrenciesSwiss FrancBearishSTRUCTURAL BULL3556783974-41+36+3639100-0.94–
CurrenciesUS DollarNeutralSTRUCTURAL BEAR8221397444+58-54-13740-1.23–
EnergiesCrude OilBullish974139512+6-5-33954+1.87–
EnergiesGasolineBullish8518198923+23-25+4898+0.95–
EnergiesHeating OilNeutral5940566257+30-30-86211-1.31–
EnergiesNatural GasNeutral4645565159+30-33+15122-0.55–
EquitiesDOWNeutral98210980+6+9-189850-1.40–
EquitiesNasdaqBearish51880350+25+29-8935100-1.29–
EquitiesRussellBearish64560620+4+9+061100-0.09–
EquitiesS&P 500Bullish1002001000+76-46-721008-0.04–
Fixed Income10-Year NoteNeutral7325887690+20-27+437628+0.32–
Fixed Income2-Year NoteNeutral6440247122+0+6-317129-0.22–
Fixed Income30-Year NoteNeutral4448603455+29-29-20340+0.82–
Fixed Income5-Year NoteBullish9908510087+21-17+191000+0.80–
GrainsCornNeutral3068422331+14-14+82322+0.85–
GrainsSoybeanBearishMACD SELL3763513759-25+21+2537100+0.64–
GrainsSoybean MealBullishBEAR TREND81209812-19+20+08158+0.84–
GrainsSoybean OilBearish3270543156-25+26+73192+0.51–
GrainsWheatNeutral8322478950-6+10-368922+0.67–
Live StockFeeder CattleNeutral6814924453+15-65+924441-2.19–
Live StockLean HogsBullish98010095100-2+0+1950-1.34–
Live StockLive CattleNeutral80510049100-20+5+9495-2.04–
MetalsCopperNeutral5550214326-3+6-124356-0.88–
MetalsGoldBullish1001839080+11-10-1901-1.28–
MetalsPalladiumBullish7823488248+12-9-268214+1.00–
MetalsPlatinumNeutral7826607468+19-15-67426-0.86–
MetalsSilverNeutral6525645180+21-29+185125-0.89–
SoftsCocoaBullish100099033+0+0+9900-1.71–
SoftsCoffeeBullish10009181100+1+0+65810-1.89–
SoftsCottonBearish436195810-57+61-3558100-1.24–
SoftsLumberNeutralLW MACO BULL5647306237+25-21-106249-0.83–
SoftsOrange JuiceBullish93130890-7+13-148911-0.87–
SoftsSugarBullish8120298032-2+1+88073-0.45–

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